*This do-file executes the analysis for "Normal Countries". You may want to run it in parts or save output to a log file. use "C:\World Statistics\ncdata.dta", clear *calculate the postcom countries share of total world population in 1988 xtset ccode year replace totformcom = f.totformcom if year==1989 replace totformcom = f.totformcom if year==1988 gen tfcpop = totformcom*popwdi bysort year: egen totfcompop = total(tfcpop) gen tfcpopmil = totfcompop/100 mean indva if totformcom==1&year==1990 mean indva if totformcom==1&year==2012 mean servva if totformcom==1&year==1990 mean servva if totformcom==1&year==2012 *In no other region has international trade grown as fast, with exports plus imports soaring from 75 to 114 percent of GDP on average. *USE 2011 instead of 2012, because the change variable now has 22 noncommunist countries instead of 17. xtset ccode year gen trade11 = tradegdp replace trade11=. if year~=2011 gen trade90 = tradegdp replace trade90=. if year~=1990 bysort ccode: egen t90=max(trade90) bysort ccode: egen t11=max(trade11) gen trade9011 = t11 - t90 drop t90 t11 mean trade90 if year==1990&totformcom==1 mean trade11 if year==2011&totformcom==1 mean trade9011 if year==1990&totformcom==1 mean trade9011 if year==1990&LATAM==1 mean trade9011 if year==1990&WENAM==1 mean trade9011 if year==1990&MENA==1 mean trade9011 if year==1990&SUBSAH==1 mean trade9011 if year==1990&ASIA==1 mean trade9011 if year==1990&OCEANIA==1 *Whereas in most countries, more than 60 percent of GDP goes towards household final consumption, in Russia in 1990 less than one third did, *and in Azerbaijan less than one quarter. gsort csh_c list country csh_c if year==1990, clean *, the median postcommunist country (Uzbekistan) grew faster between 1990 and 2011 than the median country elsewhere in the world (Norway). *While Norwegian GDP per capita increased by 45 percent, Uzbekistan’s rose 47 percent. Bosnia and Herzegovina—where income grew by more than *five times—was the third fastest in the world between these years. Albania, which grew 134 percent, came 17th and Poland, growing 119 percent, 21st. *All three outpaced such growth engines as Singapore and Hong Kong. xtset ccode year gen rgdpnapc = rgdpna*1000000/popwdi *need to fill in rgdpnapc for Czech and Slovak in 1989 since this is missing. *From EBRD Macroeconomic indicators, GDP per capita in 1989 was same as in 1990 in SR and was .012 higher in CR xtset ccode year replace rgdpnapc = f.rgdpnapc*1.012 if year==1989&country=="Czech" replace rgdpnapc = f.rgdpnapc if year==1989&country=="Slovak" *rgdpna in PWT 8.0 is Real GDP at constant 2005 national prices (in mil. 2005US$). We use this to calculate change over time. xtset ccode year gen rgdpna9011 = ((rgdpnapc/l21.rgdpnapc)-1)*100 replace rgdpna9011=. if year~=2011 bysort year: egen med9011rgdpnac = median(rgdpna9011) if totformcom==1 bysort year: egen med9011rgdpnanotc = median(rgdpna9011) if totformcom==0 list med9011rgdpnac if country=="Estonia" &year==2011, clean noobs *This is median growth in the postcommunist countries list med9011rgdpnanotc if country=="Canada"&year==2011, clean noobs *This is median growth in the others gsort -rgdpna9011 list country rgdpna9011 if year==2011&rgdpna9011~=., clean noobs *PWT rgdpna, PWT population xtset ccode year gen rgdpnapc2 = rgdpna*1000000/pop xtset ccode year gen rgdpna90112 = ((rgdpnapc2/l21.rgdpnapc2)-1)*100 replace rgdpna90112=. if year~=2011 bysort year: egen med9011rgdpnac2 = median(rgdpna90112) if totformcom==1 bysort year: egen med9011rgdpnanotc2 = median(rgdpna90112) if totformcom==0 list med9011rgdpnac2 if country=="Estonia" &year==2011, clean noobs *This is median growth in the postcommunist countries list med9011rgdpnanotc2 if country=="Canada"&year==2011, clean noobs *This is median growth in the others gsort -rgdpna90112 list country rgdpna90112 if year==2011&rgdpna90112~=., clean noobs *WDI gdppc in constant local currency units xtset ccode year gen gdpcon9011 = ((gdppcclcu/l21.gdppcclcu)-1)*100 replace gdpcon9011=. if year~=2011 bysort year: egen med9011conc = median(gdpcon9011) if totformcom==1 bysort year: egen med9011connotc = median(gdpcon9011) if totformcom==0 list med9011conc if country=="Estonia" &year==2011, clean noobs *This is median growth in the postcommunist countries list med9011connotc if country=="Canada"&year==2011, clean noobs *This is median growth in the others gsort -gdpcon9011 list country gdpcon9011 if year==2011&gdpcon9011~=., clean noobs *WDI gdppc in constant local currency units to 2012 xtset ccode year gen gdpcon9012 = ((gdppcclcu/l22.gdppcclcu)-1)*100 replace gdpcon9012=. if year~=2012 bysort year: egen med9012conc = median(gdpcon9012) if totformcom==1 bysort year: egen med9012connotc = median(gdpcon9012) if totformcom==0 list med9012conc if country=="Estonia" &year==2012, clean noobs *This is median growth in the postcommunist countries list med9012connotc if country=="Canada"&year==2012, clean noobs *This is median growth in the others gsort -gdpcon9012 list country gdpcon9012 if year==2012&gdpcon9012~=., clean noobs *In the median postcommunist country, household final consumption per capita grew by 53 percent between 1990 and 2011, compared to a median increase of 45 percent *elsewhere in the world. Consumption in Poland soared 146 percent, a rise that equaled Korea’s, while Russia’s consumption more than doubled, growing faster than * in 82 percent of countries. xtset ccode year gen hconsna = csh_c*rgdpnapc gen hconsna9011 = ((hconsna/l21.hconsna)-1)*100 replace hconsna9011=. if year~=2011 bysort year: egen medhconsna9011c = median(hconsna9011) if totformcom ==1 bysort year: egen medhconsna9011n = median(hconsna9011) if totformcom ==0 list medhconsna9011c if year==2011&country=="Estonia" *this gives the median % change in household consumption per capita for former communist list medhconsna9011n if year==2011&country=="Canada" *this gives the median % change in household consumption per capita for countries that are not former communist gsort -hconsna9011 list country hconsna9011 if year==2011&hconsna9011~=., clean noobs tab hconsna9011 *Still, by 2012 inflation had stabilized almost everywhere and the annual rate had dropped below the world median. Unemployment moved towards the global average *but still remained several percentage points higher. gen inf12 = inf replace inf12 = . if year~=2012 bysort year: egen medinf12c = median(inf12) if totformcom==1 bysort year: egen medinf12world = median(inf12) list medinf12c if country=="Estonia"&year==2012, noobs clean *this is median inflation rate in postcommmunist countries list medinf12world if country=="Canada"&year==2012, noobs clean *this is world median list country inf if year==2012&totformcom==1, noobs clean gen unemp12 = unemp replace unemp12=. if year~=2012 bysort year: egen medunem12c = median(unemp12) if totformcom==1 bysort year: egen medunem12world = median(unemp12) list medunem12c if country=="Estonia"&year==2012, noobs clean list medunem12world if country=="Canada"&year==2012, noobs clean bysort year: egen medunpc = median(unemp) if totformcom==1 bysort year: egen medunworld = median(unemp) list year medunpc if country=="Estonia"&year>1989, noobs clean *this is median unemployment rate in postcommmunist countries by year list year medunworld if country=="Canada"&year>1989, noobs clean *this is world median by year list country unemp if year==2012&totformcom==1, noobs clean *Cars per capita from UNECE (supplemented from WDI and Tajik Statistical Agency) mean(carsunece) if year==1993, over (totformcom) mean(carsunece) if year==2011, over (totformcom) gsort carsunece list year country carsunece if (year==2010&carsunece~=.)|(year==2011&carsunece~=.), clean noobs *The number of phone lines per capita grew twice as fast as elsewhere, edging past Latin America. xtset ccode year gen tellines9012 = tellines - l22.tellines replace tellines9012=. if year~=2012 mean(tellines9012) if year==2012, over(totformcom) mean(tellines) if year==2012, over(totformcom) mean(tellines) if year==2012, over(LATAM) *By 2013, cellphone subscriptions per person, at 1.24, had overtaken the West. mean (mobile2013) if year==2013, over(totformcom) mean (mobile2013) if year==2013, over(WENAM) *I treat "Western Europe and North America" as representing the West *Internet users—averaging 54 percent of the population—are more widespread in the postcommunist world today than in any region except Western Europe and North America. mean(internet2013) if year==2013, over(totformcom) mean(internet2013) if year==2013, over(LATAM) mean(internet2013) if year==2013, over(WENAM) mean(internet2013) if year==2013, over(MENA) mean(internet2013) if year==2013, over(SUBSAH) mean(internet2013) if year==2013, over(ASIA) mean(internet2013) if year==2013, over(OCEANIA) *In 2012, residents of these countries made at least 102 million international tourist trips. gen it10mill = inttourdeps2010/1000000 list country it10mill if year==2010&totformcom==1, clean noobs bysort totformcom: egen sumit10 = sum(it10mill) if year==2010 list sumit10 if year==2010&country=="Estonia", clean noobs *Access to tertiary education, already high, surged even more after 1989, increasing by 33 percentage points on average. By 2012, *more secondary school graduates enrolled in higher education in the average postcommunist country than did so in Switzerland. gen tert90 = tert replace tert90=. if year~=1990 mean (tert90) if year==1990, over(totformcom) xtset ccode year gen tert9012 = tert - l22.tert replace tert9012=. if year~=2012 mean(tert9012) if year==2012, over(totformcom) mean(tert) if year==2012&totformcom==1 list tert if year==2012&country=="Switzerland" *Poverty often increased in the early transition, along with income inequality. But in recent years both the poverty rate and *the Gini coefficient were significantly lower in the postcommunist countries than in others at comparable income levels. *These regressions show that, controlling for the log of income, the former communist dummy has a significant negative effect on both poverty and inequality levels. *avgininet0812 is the average of estimates of the country's gini index gen lngdp = ln(gdppcpp11) reg pov0913 lngdp totformcom if year==2012, robust reg avgininet0812 lngdp totformcom if year==2012, robust *On average, however, life expectancy rose from 69 years in 1990 to 73 years in 2012. *The speed of improvement was nearly twice as fast as in the communist 1980s. gen lifeex9012 = lifeexp - l22.lifeexp replace lifeex9012=. if year~=2012 gen lifeex8090 = lifeexp - l10.lifeexp replace lifeex8090=. if year~=1990 mean lifeexp if year==1990, over(totformcom) mean lifeexp if year==2012, over(totformcom) mean lifeex9012, over(totformcom) mean lifeex8090, over(totformcom) *Rate in 1990-2012 = 4.06/22 = .185 *Rate in 1980-90 = 1.13/10 = .113 *Infant mortality, already low, fell faster in percentage terms than in any other world region. xtset ccode year gen infmor9012 = ((infmor/l22.infmor)-1)*100 replace infmor9012=. if year~=2012 gen infmor90 = infmor replace infmor90=. if year~=1990 mean(infmor90), over(totformcom) mean(infmor9012) if year==2012&totformcom==1 mean(infmor9012) if year==2012&LATAM==1 mean(infmor9012) if year==2012&WENAM==1 mean(infmor9012) if year==2012&ASIA==1 mean(infmor9012) if year==2012&SUBSAH==1 mean(infmor9012) if year==2012&MENA==1 mean(infmor9012) if year==2012&OCEANIA==1 mean(infmor) if year==1990&totformcom==1 mean(infmor) if year==2012&totformcom==1 *However, average alcohol consumption fell between 1990 and 2012—from 7.9 to 7.5 liters of pure alcohol a year per resident aged over 14. xtset ccode year mean (alc1990) if year==1990, over(totformcom) mean (alc2010) if year==2010, over(totformcom) gsort alc2010 list country alc2010 if year==2010, clean noobs *Smoking among adult males was high—42 percent on average—but about the same as in Asia. *percent of adult males who smoked, 2011, from WDI august 2014 mean smoke11 if year==2011, over(totformcom) mean smoke11 if year==2011, over(LATAM) mean smoke11 if year==2011, over(WENAM) mean smoke11 if year==2011, over(MENA) mean smoke11 if year==2011, over(SUBSAH) mean smoke11 if year==2011, over(ASIA) mean smoke11 if year==2011, over(OCEANIA) *Polity2 *The most common measure—the Polity2 index—rates countries on a scale, which we adjusted to run from 0 (“pure dictatorship”) to 100 (“pure democracy”). In 1988, the regimes of Eastern Europe, the Soviet Union, and Mongolia scored from 5 (Albania) to 40 (Hungary), averaging 20, around the ratings of Egypt and Iran. *For countries as economically developed as they were, their political systems were abnormally authoritarian. replace pol2norm=pol2norm*100 mean(pol2norm) if year==1988&totformcom==1 gsort pol2norm list country pol2norm if year==1988, clean noobs xtset ccode year reg pol2norm f2.lngdp totformcom if year==1988, rob *After the popular revolutions of 1989-91, the average shot up to +3.7 in 1993 and +5.3 in 2013. *Democracy was surging worldwide in these years. But in the postcommunist countries, it surged faster. *Today, the average postcommunist country is exactly as democratic as its income level would predict. mean(pol2norm) if year==1993&totformcom==1 mean(pol2norm) if year==2013&totformcom==1 gen pol8813 = polity2 - l25.polity2 replace pol8813=. if year~=2013 mean pol8813 if year==2013, over(totformcom) reg pol2norm l.lngdp totformcom if year==2013, rob *Of 29 postcommunist countries, 22 are rated “democracies” (Polity2 of 6 or higher), and six are “pure democracies” (Polity2 of 10). gsort pol2norm list country pol2norm if year==2013 &totformcom==1, clean noobs *Notwithstanding the conflicts in Yugoslavia and Chechnya, postcommunist countries were not more likely than others to experience war or civil war during these decades. mean(civilwar) if year>1989&year<2008, over(totformcom) mean(interstatewar) if year>1989&year<2008, over(totformcom) *Nor did they have a significantly higher rate of deaths in war or guerrilla violence, either in absolute numbers or per capita. replace batdeath=0 if batdeath==. gen batdeathpc = batdeath*1000000/pop xtset ccode year replace batdeathpc = batdeath*1000000/l.pop if year==2012 replace batdeathpc=0 if batdeath==. mean batdeath if year>1988&year<2014, over(totformcom) mean batdeathpc if year>1988&year<2014, over(totformcom) *In 2010-13, a smaller proportion (23 percent) reported paying a bribe in the postcommunist states on average than in others (28 percent). *For their levels of economic development, their reported corruption levels were absolutely typical. mean (gcb1013) if year==2010, over(totformcom) reg gcb1013 lngdp totformcom if year==2010, rob *Worldwide, 84 percent reported being “very” or “quite” happy. In the average postcommunist country, it was 81 percent. For their income levels, *they were about as happy as one would expect. mean (hap1014) if year==2010, over(totformcom) mean (hap1014) if year==2010 reg hap1014 lngdp totformcom if year==2010, rob *The structures of their economies, consumption patterns, reported corruption levels, and political systems are all normal for their income levels. reg servva lngdp totformcom if year==1990, robust reg servva lngdp totformcom if year==2012, robust reg agricva lngdp totformcom if year==1990, robust reg agricva lngdp totformcom if year==2012, robust reg indva lngdp totformcom if year==1990, robust reg indva lngdp totformcom if year==2012, robust gen tourpop10 = inttourdeps2010*100/pop reg tourpop10 lngdp totformcom if year==2010, robust reg csh_c lngdp totformcom if year==2011, rob reg polity2 lngdp totformcom if year==2012, robust reg gcb1013 lngdp totformcom if year==2012, robust *Their citizens enroll in higher education at higher rates, buy more mobile phone subscriptions, and use the internet more than in comparably developed countries. *Their health systems inoculate more children and prevent infant mortality more effectively. Measured poverty and inequality are lower. reg tert lngdp totformcom if year==2012, robust reg mobile2013 lngdp totformcom if year==2012, robust reg internet2013 lngdp totformcom if year==2012, robust reg measles lngdp totformcom if year==2012, robust reg infmor lngdp totformcom if year==2012, robust reg pov0913 lngdp totformcom if year==2012, robust reg avgininet0812 lngdp totformcom if year==2012, robust *Unemployment remains several percentage points “too high.” Postcommunist citizens smoke and drink more than typical for countries with their GDP per capita. *(Since alcohol consumption increases with national income, this actually makes them look more developed than they are.) *Such vices notwithstanding, life expectancy is on average exactly as high as income would predict. reg unemp2012 lngdp totformcom if year==2012, robust reg smoke11 lngdp totformcom if year==2012, robust reg alc2010 lngdp totformcom if year==2012, robust reg lifeexp lngdp totformcom if year==2012, robust *They express less trust in government (although not in ordinary people) and greater dissatisfaction with their jobs, *living standards, education and healthcare systems. reg trustpeople lngdp totformcom if year==2012, robust reg trustgov lngdp totformcom if year==2012, robust reg sateduc lngdp totformcom if year==2012, robust reg sathlthcare lngdp totformcom if year==2012, robust reg satliving lngdp totformcom if year==2012, robust reg satjob lngdp totformcom if year==2012, robust reg satsafety lngdp totformcom if year==2012, robust *Their suicide rates, although they are now lower than they were under late communism, remain relatively high. mean (sui8789) if year==2010, over(totformcom) mean (sui0712) if year==2010, over(totformcom) *Why is Poland today a liberal free-market democracy whose income has more than doubled since 1990, while Turkmenistan has become * a sultanistic petrostate with an economy rated less free than Yugoslavia’s under late communism? list country polity2 if year==2013&(country=="Poland"|country=="Turkmenistan") *growth of gdp per capita in percent 1990 - 2011 list country rgdpna9011 if year==2011&country=="Poland" *EBRD score for Yugoslavia in 1989: 1 is lowest, 4.33 is highest. list country ebrd if year==2011&(country=="Poland"|country=="Turkmenistan") list country ebrd if year==1989&country=="Serbia" *We define as radical reformers those who had increased their EBRD score by 40 points on a 100-point scale by the end of the third year after start of transition xtset ccode year gen transyear=. replace transyear=1989 if ee==1 replace transyear=1990 if formyug==1|country=="Mongolia" replace transyear=1991 if fsu==1 gen ebrd2 = (ebrd-1)/3.33 gen debrd2 = ebrd2-l.ebrd2 gen debrd2trans3 = . replace debrd2trans3 = ebrd2 - l3.ebrd2 if year==transyear+3 bysort ccode: egen ebtyplus3 = max(debrd2trans3) gen dum = . replace dum=2 if ebtyplus3>.40&ebtyplus3<. replace dum=1 if ebtyplus3>.25&ebtyplus3<.40 replace dum=0 if ebtyplus3<.25 *2: radical reformers, 1: gradual reformers, 0: slow reformers *Make a trans year GDP per capita index. Use PWT, rgdpnapc gen tyg = rgdpnapc replace tyg = . if year~=transyear bysort ccode: egen transyeargdp = max(tyg) gen rgdppcnaindty = rgdpnapc*100/transyeargdp replace rgdppcnaindty =. if year2009 *By the late 1990s, countries that had embraced radical reform were visibly outperforming those that had delayed. bysort year: egen medrindrad = median(rind) if dum==2 bysort year: egen medrindgrad = median(rind) if dum==1 bysort year: egen medrindslow = median(rind) if dum==0 replace medrindrad = . if year > 2009 replace medrindgrad = . if year > 2009 replace medrindslow = . if year > 2009 list year medrindrad if year==1999&country=="Estonia", noobs clean list year medrindgrad if year==1999&country=="Moldova", noobs clean list year medrindslow if year==1999&country=="Turkmenistan", noobs clean *The “radical reformers,” by this definition, were Poland, Hungary, the Czech and Slovak Republics, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Russia, and Kyrgyzstan. gsort ebty list country dum if year==2012&totformcom==1, clean noobs *Figure 1 shows the path of output for the median radical, gradual, and slow reforming countries over the first 21 years of transition. *Data for the graph produced as follows xtset ccode year list year medrindrad medrindgrad medrindslow if year>1988&year<2010 & (country=="Estonia"|country=="Moldova"|country=="Turkmenistan"), clean noobs *The difference is substantial. If we add up the “total loss before recovery”—that is, the area between the horizontal 100-percent line and each curve—the loss *for the gradualists is about 40 percent greater—and that for the slow reformers about 140 percent greater—than that for the radical reformers (each measured *relative to initial output). gen gaprad = 100-medrindrad replace gaprad=. if gaprad<0 gen gapgrad = 100-medrindgrad replace gapgrad=. if gapgrad<0 gen gapslow = 100-medrindslow replace gapslow=. if gapslow<0 bysort ccode: egen totlossrad = sum(gaprad) bysort ccode: egen totlossgrad = sum(gapgrad) bysort ccode: egen totlossslow = sum(gapslow) list totlossrad totlossgrad totlossslow if year==2000 & (country=="Estonia"|country=="Moldova"|country=="Turkmenistan"), clean noobs * totlossgrad (196.998) is about 1.44 times totlossrad (136.882); totlossslow (329.011) is about 2.4 times totlosrad (136.882). *Had the median gradual reformer perfomed as well as the median radical reformer over these 21 years, it would have generated additional output *equal to 1.4 times its transition year output. *total output for both medians bysort ccode: egen totoutrad = sum (medrindrad) bysort ccode: egen totoutgrad = sum (medrindgrad) list totoutrad totoutgrad if year==2000 & (country=="Estonia"|country=="Moldova"), clean noobs *2258 - 2114 = 144; so total output of the median radical reformer is 1.44 transition year outputs greater than that of the median gradual reformer. *Radical reformers also did much better if one considers household consumption instead of income, *Make a trans year household consumption per capita index. gen tyh = hconsna replace tyh = . if year~=transyear bysort ccode: egen transyearhconsna = max(tyh) gen hconsnaindty = hconsna*100/transyearhconsna replace hconsnaindty =. if year 2009 replace medhindgrad = . if year > 2009 replace medhindslow = . if year > 2009 xtset ccode year list year medhindrad medhindgrad medhindslow if year>1988&year<2010 & (country=="Estonia"|country=="Moldova"|country=="Turkmenistan"), clean noobs *they also tended to bring down inflation faster. xtset ccode year gen infty = inf replace infty = f.inf if formyug==1|mongolia==1 replace infty = f2.inf if fsu==1 *this gives inflation rate with 1989 set as transition year for all. bysort year: egen medinftyrad = median(infty) if dum==2 bysort year: egen medinftygrad = median(infty) if dum==1 bysort year: egen medinftyslow = median(infty) if dum==0 xtset ccode year list year medinftyrad medinftygrad medinftyslow if year>1988&year<2010 & (country=="Estonia"|country=="Moldova"|country=="Turkmenistan"), clean noobs gen gap = 100-rind replace gap=. if gap<0 bysort ccode: egen totl = sum(gap) gsort ebty list country dum totl if year==2000 & totformcom==1, clean noobs *Controlling for a country’s own characteristics, the richer, more democratic, and more economically liberal its non-communist neighbors were in 1990, *the more the country developed, democratized, and marketized its economy over the next two decades. *income gen rgdpepc = rgdpe*1000000/pop xtset ccode year reg rgdpna9011 l21.rgdpepc l21.neigrgdpepcnochn if year==2011 *polity replace polity2=-5 if formyugo==1&year==1990 replace polity2=0 if fsu==1&year==1990 replace polity2 = 8 if ccode==316&year==1990 replace polity2 = 8 if ccode==317&year==1990 xtset ccode year gen dpol8810 = polity2-l22.polity2 replace dpol8810 = . if year~=2010 gen dpol9010= polity2 - l20.polity2 replace dpol9010=. if year~=2010 reg dpol9010 l20.polity2 neigpol90 if year==2010, rob *market freedom *neighbor effects with just non-Soviet bloc neighbors (i.e. including China) xtset ccode year gen debrd8910 = ebrd2-l21.ebrd2 replace debrd8910=. if year~=2010 reg debrd8910 l21.ebrd2 nbrefind85 if year==2010, rob *nbrefind85 is the average value of Fraser Institute index of economic freedom among nearest non-communist neighbor(s) in 1985 *Convergence toward the neighbors shows up in more subtle ways as well—for instance, in rates of college enrolment, *alcohol consumption, and even life expectancy. *tertiary enrolment replace tert = 16 if country=="Slovak Republic" &year==1990 *figure for Czech republic in 1990 replace tert = 33 if country=="Germany" &year==1990 *figure for 1991 replace tert = 32.41 if country=="Serbia" &year==1990 *From National Commission for UNESCO, Development of Education in the FR of Yugoslavia, 1990-91, UNESCO: 1993, p.68 (www.ibe.unesco.org/.../Yugoslavia/nr_mf_yu_1992_e.pdf) replace tert = 32.41 if country=="Bosnia and Herzegovina" &year==1990 *Figure for Yugoslavia, from above replace tert = 37 if country=="Georgia" &year==1990 *figure for 1991 replace tert = 16 if country=="Iran, Islamic Rep." &year==1990 *figure for 1995 *interpolate missing values bysort ccode: ipolate tert year, generate (tert1) drop tert rename tert1 tert xtset ccode year gen dtert = tert - l20.tert replace dtert=. if year~=2010 reg dtert l20.tert l20.neigtert if year==2010, rob *alcohol consumption gen dalc = alc2010- alc1990 replace dalc=. if year~=2010 reg dalc alc1990 nbralc90nochn if year==2010, rob *life expectancy. xtset ccode year gen dlife = lifeexp - l20.lifeexp replace dlife=. if year~=2010 reg dlife l20.lifeexp l20.neiglifenochn if year==2010, rob *Since then, Russia’s GDP per capita has increased another 39 percent and its internet penetration has quadrupled, overtaking Greece. list year gdppcclcu if country=="Russian Federation" &year>2003, clean noobs *89147/64300 = 1.39 *Perhaps surprisingly, if one plots countries’ Polity2 scores against their income, Russia still lies only slightly below the regression *line. It scores a 4 in 2013, on a par with Venezuela and Sri Lanka, while the average Polity2 rating for countries with income between $15,000 and $25,000 is 4.9. list country gdppcpp11 polity2 if year==2013, clean noobs *produces data for the plot. *another way to see this is to regress polity on gdppcpp11 with dummy for Russia gen russia = 0 replace russia=1 if country=="Russian Federation" reg polity2 gdppcpp11 russia if year==2013, rob *This shows Russia is .66 points "too low" on the 21 point scale. mean(polity2) if gdppcpp11>15000&gdppcpp11<25000&year==2013 *Only three groups of countries are wealthier than Russia today: developed democracies; oil-rich dictatorships, *mostly in the Persian Gulf; and commercial city states such as Singapore and Macau. gsort polity2 list country polity2 gdppcpp11 if gdppcpp11>23564&gdppcpp11<.&year==2013, noobs clean list country polity2 gdppcpp11 if gdppcpp11>23564&gdppcpp11<.&year==2012, noobs clean