Other recent research: Ethnic exclusion and wars | Ethnic boundary making | Boundaries in social networks

Nation-state formation and diffusion

Negotiating the boundaries of belonging: A game theoretic model of the rise of the first nation-states

The first project is pursued together with Clemens Kroneberg, a graduate student at the University of Mannheim. Classical theories of nationalism either emphasize the role of a hegemonic, militaristic and centralizing state in generating nationalist imaginaries and identities, or that of popular sentiment emerging in the wake of the print revolution and the Enlightenment. Going beyond this divide, we conceive of nationalism as the consensual outcome of a negotiation process between state elites, counter elites, and the population at large. Integrating separate strands of literature, we consider three possible outcomes of this negotiation process: encompassing (or civic) nationalism, competing ethnic nationalisms, and populist nationalism. We develop a formal model by combining an exchange-theoretic approach to preference formation with a game-theoretic model of interaction and negotiation. Assuming social closure along classificatory lines, the model lets actors negotiate those social classifications that allow the most advantageous exchange of different types of resources and at the same time provide a good fit with the empirical distribution of cultural traits over actors. Important parts of the model are calibrated with historical data from France (1300 to 1900) and the Ottoman Empire (1500 to 1900). We show why encompassing nationalism is more likely to occur in strongly centralized states with strong civil societies, and why actors in weakly centralized states with weak civil societies will negotiate several separate ethno-nationalist projects. Medium state centralization, high levels of mass mobilization and a weak civil society favor the emergence of populist nationalism. The paper specifies the actor-based mechanisms through which political modernization leads to these various collective sentiments and modes of social closure.

The paper is currently under review and can be obtained here.

The global diffusion of the nation-state

The historical circumstances that led to the rise of the first modern nation-states are quite distinct from the processes that led to its further diffusion across the globe. To test this and other arguments about the rise of the nation-state, I have teamed up with Yuval Feinstein, a graduate student in UCLA's department of sociology. We have assembled a new dataset that contains information on 145 of today’s states from 1816 to the year when they achieved nation-statehood.  Event-history analysis shows that the likelihood of nation-state creation is influenced on the one hand by diffusion mechanisms within empires and among neighbors and on the other hand by a power shift that allows nationalists to overthrow or absorb the established regime. Such a power shift is more likely to occur when nationalists have had ample time to mobilize the population, if the established regime is weakened by wars, when empires lack the global military and economic power to fight independence movements effectively, or when the governmental capacity of autonomous states is insufficient to co-opt, control or suppress nationalism. We found no robust evidence for the effects of industrialization, the advent of mass literacy, or increasing administrative penetration and direct rule, which are associated with classical theories of economic, cultural and political modernization. We conclude that the global spread of the nation-state is driven by proximate and contextual political factors on the local and regional levels, rather than by domestic or global structural forces that operate over the long durée.

The paper is currently under review and can be obtained here.