Columbia University                                               Political Science W4895x                                                                 Autumn 2000

 

 

                        WAR, PEACE, AND STRATEGY

 

 

Class: Monday/Wednesday 11:00-12:15.                                                   Professor Richard K. Betts

Office Hours: Wednesdays 2:30-5:00,                                             Institute of War and Peace Studies

(except when meetings require rescheduling),                                                                      Room 1328

or by appointment.                                                                                International Affairs Building

Telephone:  212-854-7325                                                                 E-Mail:  <rkb4@columbia.edu>

 

 

Why is force often used in world politics?  What causes peace?  How do wars, or competitions shaped by the lurking possibili­ty of war, affect international relations and individual societies?  How can nations best prepare to prevent wars or to win them if they occur?  By what standards should resort to force, or strategic and tactical choices in prosecuting war, be judged legitimate or immoral?  How are the prevention, outbreaks, processes, and outcomes of mass violence (or crises resolved without combat) determined by politics, ideology, diplomacy, technology, economics, geography, military plans and strategies, intelli­gence, and arms control?  What difference do weapons of mass destruction make?  Is the world safer or more dangerous after the Cold War?  Can war be made obsolete?

 

The course touches on all these questions but emphasizes problems in the relation between political ends and military means.  Students must grapple with the terms of reference in both dimensions.  The course is organized thematically, not by cases, but illustrative examples are drawn from conflicts in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East.

 

 

Requirements:  Students must (1) complete assigned readings (denoted by Arabic numerals); (2) attend lectures; (3) take the final examination on the scheduled date (make-up exams will not be allowed except for certified medical excuse or family emergency).  Undergraduates must also (4) take the mid-term examination on Wednesday, October 25 (optional for graduate students); and (5) attend discussion sections (optional for graduate students).  Books ordered in the College Bookstore and Labyrinth Books should be purchased.  Required readings are on reserve in Lehman Library.

 

 

Warning:  In hope of making this course as rewarding as possible for those genuinely interested in education, it is meant to be challenging and difficult.  Students who cannot or do not wish to complete a demanding load of reading should not take this course.  Those who do not complete the required reading should not expect to do well, but may still find it possible to avoid failing the course by concentrating on items 2, 5-8, 13-14, 17, 19-24, 30-32, 38-41.  In the past a few foolish souls who did not believe that I mean what I say misread the latter list as what one must read to do well.  Students should be reminded that "avoid failing" means earning a "D" or better ("C" or better for satisfactory performance) for undergraduates, and "B-" or better for graduate students.

I.       Introduction:  Functions and Nature of War

                                Does War Have a Future?

                                Concepts of National Security and Philosophy of War

                                Political Ends and Military Means: Rationality

                                War is Hell: Insanity and Obscenity

                                The Perspective Between Pacifism and Militarism

 

1.         Richard K. Betts, ed., Conflict After the Cold War: Arguments on Causes of War and Peace (Macmillan, 1994):

                        Francis Fukuyama, "The End of History;"

                        John Mueller, "The Obsolescence of Major War;"

                        John Mearsheimer, "Why We Will Soon Miss the Cold War."

 

2.         Carl von Clausewitz, On War, Michael Howard and Peter Paret, eds. and trans. (Princeton University Press, 1976), Book I, chaps. 1, 2.  (NB:  Do not read a different translation without consulting the instructor.  Under no circumstances read the widely available Penguin edition of the Graham translation abridged by Anatol Rapaport.)

 

3.         Sun Tzu, The Art of War, Ralph Sawyer, trans. (Westview Press, 1994), chaps. 3, 4, 6, 11.  (NB:  The Griffith, Huang, or Ames translations are accept­able.)

 

4.         "'The Real War Will Never Get in the Books,'" in Paul Fussell, Wartime (Oxford University Press, 1989), chap. 18.

 

 

II.      Causes of War and Peace

                                Psychology and Anthropology: Instinct, Ritual, or the Continuation of Sport by Other Means

                                Main Paradigms: Realism and Liberalism

                                Autarky or Interdependence

                                Ideology and Fraternity

                                Marxism, Capitalism, Feudalism, Militarism

 

5.         Kenneth N. Waltz, Man, the State, and War (Columbia University Press, 1959).

 

6.         Betts, ed., Conflict After the Cold War:

                        Thucydides, "The Melian Dialogue;" 

                        E. H. Carr, "Realism and Idealism;"

                        Geoffrey Blainey, "Power, Culprits, and Arms;"

                        Immanuel Kant, "Perpetual Peace;"

                        Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye, "Power and Interdependence;"

                        Norman Angell, "The Great Illusion;"

                        Geoffrey Blainey, "Paradise is a Bazaar;"

                        V.I. Lenin, "Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism;"

                        Joseph Schumpeter, "Imperialism and Capitalism;"

                        Kenneth N. Waltz, "Structural Causes and Economic Effects;"

                        Richard Rosecrance, "Trade and Power;"

                        Stanley Kober, "Idealpolitik;"

                        Michael Doyle, "Liberalism and World Politics."

 

 

III.    Securing Peace:  Balance of Power and Cooperative Insti­tutions

                                What is Stability?  Equilibrium or Peace

                                Meanings of Balance of Power

                                Effects of Unipolarity, Bipolarity, Multipolarity

                                International Organization and "Regimes"

                                Collective Security

 

7.         Inis L. Claude, Jr., Power and International Relations (Random House, 1962), chaps. 2-3.

 

8.         Betts, ed., Conflict After the Cold War:

                        Robert Gilpin, "Hegemonic War and International Change;"

                        Richard Ullman, "The Changed Premises of European Security;"

                        Richard K. Betts, "Collective Security and Arms Control in the New Europe."

 

9.         Martha Finnemore, "Constructing Norms of Humanitarian Intervention," in Peter J. Katzenstein, ed., The Culture of National Security (Columbia University Press, 1996)

            or  Adam Roberts, "The United Nations and International Security," Survival 35, no.2 (Summer 1993).  (NB:  Graduate students in political science may prefer Finnemore, SIPA students may prefer Roberts.)

 

 

IV.     The Choice of War or Peace

                                The Spectrum of Choice: Concession, Compromise, Combat

                                Setting the Price of Peace: Political Stakes vs. Military Costs

                                Setting the Price of War: Blood, Treasure, and Risk

                                Deterrence and Reassurance

                                Crisis Management and "Accidental" War

                                Cases: 1914, 1938, 1962

 

10.       Gordon Craig and Alexander George, Force and Statecraft, Third Edition (Oxford

            University Press, 1995), chap. 16 (or chapter 15 in the Second Edition, 1990).

 

 

V.      Modern War: Constraints, Conditions, Conduct

                                Geography: Natural Security and Vulnerability

                                Economy: Resources, Power, and Strategy

                                Combined Arms: Armies, Navies, Airpower

                                Campaigns and Logistics

 

11.       Niccolò Machiavelli, "Money is Not the Sinews of War, Although it is Generally So Considered," Book II, chap. 10 of Discourses on the First Ten Books of Titus Livius, Christian E. Detmold, trans., in The Prince and the Discourses (Modern Library, 1950).

 

12.       Alan S. Milward, "War as Policy," in Betts, ed., Conflict After the Cold War.

 

 

VI.     Policy, Strategy, and Operations:

          Integrating Political Ends and Military Means

                                Technology: Innovation and Interactions

                                Doctrine: Plans, Tactics, Obstacles

                                Offense and Defense: Aggressive, Preventive, and Preemptive War

                                How Ends Determine Means, How Means Determine Ends

 

13.       Michael Howard, War in European History (Oxford University Press, 1974), chaps. 2-6.

 

14.       Clausewitz, On War, Book I, chap. 7; Book II, chaps. 3-4; Book III, chaps. 1-5, 11, 14, 17; Book VI, chaps. 1-7, Book VII, chaps. 1-5.

 

15.       Michael I. Handel, "Clausewitz in the Age of Technology," in Handel, ed., Clausewitz and Modern Strategy (London: Cass, 1986).

 

16.       "The Somme," in John Keegan, The Face of Battle (Viking, 1976), chap. 4.

 

17.       Betts, Ed., Jervis, "Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma;"

                        Scott D. Sagan, "1914 Revisited;"

                        Jack S. Levy, "The Offensive/Defensive Balance of Military Technology."

 

 

VII.   Ends and Means in Total War and Limited War

            Estimating Costs, Benefits, and Feasibility

                                Estimating the Culminating Point of Victory

                                Total War Cases: World Wars I and II

                                Limited War Cases: Korea, Vietnam, Kuwait

 

19.       Clausewitz, On War, Book VII, chaps. 15, 16, 22; Book VIII, chaps. 1-8.

 

20.       Michael Geyer, "German Strategy in the Age of Machine Warfare, 1914-1945," in Peter Paret, ed., Makers of Modern Strategy (Princeton University Press, 1986).

 

21.       Samuel Eliot Morison, Strategy and Compromise (Atlantic/Little, Brown, 1958).

 

22.       Harry G. Summers, On Strategy: A Critical Analysis of the Vietnam War (Presidio Press, 1982), chaps. 1, 7-11, 15.

 

23.       Andrew Krepinevich, The Army and Vietnam (Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986), chaps. 1, 6-8, 10.

 

24.       Michael Gordon and Bernard Trainor, The Generals' War (Little, Brown, 1995), chaps. 18-20.

 

 

VIII.  Society, Polity, and Power

                                State Expansion and Social Mobilization

                                Civil-Military Relations

                                Recruitment, Conscription, Organization

                                Combat Motivation: When Fighting Can Get One Killed, What Makes One Fight?

                       

25.       Ernest Gellner, "Nations and Nationalism," in Betts, ed., Conflict After the Cold War.

 

26.       Chaim Kaufmann, "Possible and Impossible Solutions to Ethnic Civil Wars," International Security 20, no. 4 (Spring 1996).

 

27.       Radha Kumar, "The Troubled History of Partition," Foreign Affairs 76, no. 1 (January/February 1997).  (NB: This was in part a response to Kaufmann's 1996 article.  For Kaufmann's reply, see his "When All Else Fails: Ethnic Population Transfers and Partitions in the Twentieth Century," International Security 23, no. 2 (Fall 1998).  The latter is not required for this course.)

 

28.       Edward Shils and Morris Janowitz, "Cohesion and Disintegration in the Wehrmacht in World War II," Public Opinion Quarterly 12, no. 2 (Summer 1948).

                       

29.       Omer Bartov, Hitler's Army (Oxford University Press, 1991), chaps. 3-4.

 

 

IX.     When Is War Murder?  The Morality of Killing

                                Absolute vs. Utilitarian Criteria

                                Atrocities: Cold Blood and Passion

                                Is Terrorism Ever Legitimate?

 

30.       Michael Walzer, Just and Unjust Wars (Basic Books, 1977), chaps. 1, 4-10, 16, 19.

 

 

X.      The Nuclear Revolution (1): Theory

                                Nuclear Weapons Effects

                                Deterrence and Compellence

                                Rationality, Uncertainty, and Credibility

                                Limited War and Escalation

                                               

31.       Thomas Schelling, Arms and Influence (Yale University Press, 1966), chaps. 2-4.

 

32.       Lawrence Freedman, The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy, Second Edition (St. Martin's Press, 1990), chaps. 6-9, 12-16, 19, 24-25.

 

 

XI.     The Nuclear Revolution (2):  Practice

            Two Experiences of Nuclear Weapons

                                Coercion: Deterrence and Compellence

                                Nuclear War Plans and Operational Doctrine

                                Cold War Crises

                       

33.       "Thank God for the Atom Bomb," in Paul Fussell, Thank God for the Atom Bomb and Other Essays (Summit Books, 1988).

                                               

34.       Richard K. Betts, Nuclear Blackmail and Nuclear Balance (Brookings Institution, 1987), chaps. 3-4.

 

 

XII.   Threat Assessment and Defense Planning

                                Aggression or Security Dilemma?

                                Intentions and Capabilities

                                Deterrence and Provocation

                                Intelligence and Uncertainty

                                U.S. Force Planning in the Cold War

 

35.       Memorandum on the Present State of British Relations with France and Germany," January 1, 1907, and Thomas Sanderson, "Observations on Printed Memorandum on Relations with France and Germany, January 1907," in G.P. Gooch and Harold Temperley, eds., British Documents on the Origins of the War, 1898-1914, vol. 3: The Testing of the Entente, 1904-6 (London: His Majesty's Stationery Office, 1928).  (NB:  Read carefully pp. 399-405, 414-419; skim the rest.)

 

36.       Richard Bernstein and Ross H. Munro, "The Coming Conflict with America" and Robert S. Ross, "Beijing as a Conservative Power," both in Foreign Affairs 76, no. 2 (March/April 1997).

 

37.       William W. Kaufmann, Planning Conventional Forces, 1950-1980 (Brookings Institution, 1980)  or  Michael O'Hanlon, Defense Planning for the Late 1990s (Brookings Institution, 1995), chaps. 1-3.

 

 

XIII.  Arms Control and Disarmament

                                Political, Economic, and Military Rationales

                                Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD): Cold War Negotiations

                                Conventional Forces: "Defense Dominance"?

                                Arms Trade

                                Costs and Benefits of Regulation

                                Regional Conflicts and Incentives for Proliferation

                                WMD After the Cold War: Biological, Chemical, Nuclear

 

38.       Samuel P. Huntington, "Arms Races: Prerequisites and Results," Public Policy: The Yearbook of the Harvard School of Public Administration (Harvard University, 1958).

 

39.       Charles H. Fairbanks, Jr. and Abram N. Shulsky, "Arms Control: The Historical Experience," in Betts, ed., Conflict After the Cold War.

 

40.       Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate (W.W. Norton, 1995).

 

 

XIV.  Conclusion:  Evolving Bases of Conflict and Cooperation

                                Environmental Issues as Sources of Conflict

                                Religion

                                 Power Without Force

                                A "Revolution in Military Affairs"?

                                Information Warfare, Non-Lethal Weaponry, and New Operational Horizons

                                Theories, Experience, and Prediction

            Culture and Conflict

 

41.       Betts, ed., Conflict After the Cold War:

                        Myron Weiner, "Security, Stability, and Migration;"

                        Thomas Homer-Dixon, "Environmental Changes as Causes of Acute Conflict;"

                        Hanns W. Maull, "Germany and Japan: The New Civilian Powers."

 

42.       Eliot A. Cohen, "A Revolution in Warfare," Foreign Affairs 75, no. 2 (March/April 1996)  or  Stephen Biddle, "Assessing Theories of Future Warfare," Security Studies 8, no. 1 (Autumn 1998).  (NB:  Graduate students in political science, or specialists in strategic studies, should read Biddle.)

 

43.       Samuel P. Huntington, "The Clash of Civilizations?" Foreign Affairs 72, no. 2 (Summer 1993)  or  Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order (Simon and Schuster, 1996), chaps. 1, 10-12.

                             Supplementary Recommended Readings

 

These are listed for bibliographical purposes, for students specializing in security studies.  Not all the readings on this syllabus, especially in the recommended section, are listed because their arguments are correct or convincing; indeed, some are quite foolish and wrong.  They are listed as examples of ideas that have been influential at some time.

 

Graduate students in political science concentrating in security studies should read in their entirety:  Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War, Rex Warner, trans. (Penguin, 1972); E.H. Carr, The Twenty Years Crisis, 1919-1939, Second Edition (London: Macmillan, 1946); Geoffrey Blainey, Causes of War, Third Edition (Free Press, 1988); Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye, Power and Interdependence, Second Edition (Little, Brown, 1989); Hans Morgenthau, Politics Among Nations, Fifth Edition (Knopf, 1973); and Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Addison-Wesley, 1979).

 

 

                                                            I. Introduction:  Purpose and Character of Force

 

Robert Jervis, "The Future of World Politics: Will It Resemble the Past?" International Security 16, no. 3 (Winter 1991/92).

 

Michael I. Handel, Masters of War: Classical Strategic Thought, second edition (London: Cass, 1996).

 

John Keegan, A History of Warfare (Knopf, 1994) (an attack on Clausewitz).

 

Bernard Brodie, War and Politics (Macmillan, 1973).

 

Stanley Hoffmann, The State of War (Praeger, 1966).

 

John Herz, International Politics in the Atomic Age (Columbia University Press, 1959).

 

Erich Maria Remarque, All Quiet on the Western Front, A.W. Wheen, trans. (Little, Brown, 1929).

 

Guy Chapman, A Passionate Prodigality (Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1933).

 

S.L.A. Marshall, The River and the Gauntlet: Defeat of the Eighth Army by the Chinese Communist Forces November 1950 in the Battle of the Chongchon River, Korea (Morrow, 1953).

 

Tim O'Brien, If I Die In a Combat Zone, Box Me Up and Ship Me Home (Delacorte, 1973).

 

Josiah Bunting, The Lionheads (Braziller, 1972).

 

Samuel Hynes, The Soldier's Tale: Bearing Witness to Modern War (Allen Lane/Penguin, 1997).

 

 

                                                                              II.  Causes of War and Peace

 

Jack Levy, "The Causes of War: A Review of Theories and Evidence," in Philip E. Tetlock et al., eds., Behavior, Society, and Nuclear War, vol. I (Oxford University Press, 1989).

 

Thomas Hobbes, Leviathan.

 

Hugo Grotius, De Jure Praedae Commentarius.

 

Hans Morgenthau, Politics Among Nations, Fifth Edition (Knopf, 1973).

 

Arnold Wolfers, Discord and Collaboration (Johns Hopkins Press, 1962).

 

Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Addison-Wesley, 1979).

 

Stephen Van Evera, Causes of War: Power and the Roots of Conflict (Cornell University Press, 1999).

 

Donald Kagan, On the Origins of War and the Preservation of Peace (Doubleday, 1995).

 

Donald Kagan, "Honor, Interest, and the Nation State," in Elliott Abrams, ed., Honor Among Nations (Ethics and Public Policy Center, 1998).

 

Elliott Abrams, ed., Honor Among Nations: Intangible Interests and Foreign Policy (Ethics and Public Policy Center, 1998).

 

Kalevi J. Holsti, Peace and War (Cambridge University Press, 1991).

 

Kalevi J. Holsti, The State, War, and the State of War (Cambridge University Press, 1996).

 

Michael Doyle, Ways of War and Peace (W.W. Norton, 1997).

 

Richard Rosecrance and Arthur A. Stein, eds., The Domestic Bases of Grand Strategy (Cornell University Press, 1993).

 

Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye, Power and Interdependence, Second Edition (Little, Brown, 1989).

 

Hedley Bull, The Anarchical Society (Oxford University Press, 1977).

 

Hedley Bull, Adam Roberts, and Benedict Kingsbury, eds., Hugo Grotius and International Relations (Oxford University Press, 1990).

 

J. L. Brierly, The Law of Nations, Sixth Edition (Oxford University Press, 1963).

 

Robert Keohane, ed., Neorealism and Its Critics (Columbia University Press, 1986).

 

Edward D. Mansfield, Power, Trade, and War (Princeton University Press, 1994)

 

Norrin Ripsman and Jean-Marc Blanchard, "Commercial Liberalism Under Fire: Evidence from 1914 and 1936," Security Studies 6, no. 2 (Winter 1996/97).

 

Klaus Knorr, On the Uses of Military Power in the Nuclear Age (Princeton University Press, 1966).

 

Klaus Knorr, "Is International Coercion Waning or Rising?" International Security 1, no. 4 (Spring 1977).

 

Konrad Lorenz, On Aggression, Marjorie Kerr Wilson, trans. (Harcourt, Brace, and World, 1966).

 

Anthony Storr, Human Aggression (Atheneum, 1968).

 

Harry Holbert Turney-High, Primitive War, Second Edition (University of South Carolina Press, 1971).

 

Franco Fornari, The Psychoanalysis of War, Alenka Pfeifer, trans. (Indiana University Press, 1966).

 

Bruce Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace (Princeton University Press, 1993).

 

Edward Mansfield and Jack Snyder, "Democratization and the Danger of War," International Security 20, no. 1 (Summer 1995).

 

Christopher Layne, "Kant or Cant: The Myth of the Democratic Peace;" David Spiro, "The Insignificance of the Liberal Peace;" and John Owen, "How Liberalism Produces Democratic Peace," all in International Security 19, no. 2 (Fall 1994).

 

Alexander Wendt, "Anarchy Is What States Make of It," International Organization 46, no. 2 (Spring 1992).

 

 

                                           III.  Securing Peace: Balance of Power and Cooperative Institutions

 

Inis L. Claude, Jr., Power and International Relations (Random House, 1962).

 

Inis L. Claude, Jr., Swords Into Plowshares, Fourth Edition (Random House, 1971).

 

Ernst Haas, "The Balance of Power: Prescription, Concept, or Propaganda?" World Politics 5, no. 4 (July 1953).

 

Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Cornell University Press, 1987).

 

Edward V. Gulick, Europe's Classical Balance of Power (Norton, 1955).

 

Albert Sorel, Europe Under the Old Regime, Francis H. Herrick, trans. (Harper and Row, 1964).

 

Henry A. Kissinger, A World Restored (Grosset and Dunlap, 1964).

               

F. H. Hinsley, Power and the Pursuit of Peace (Cambridge University Press, 1963).

 

A.J.P. Taylor, The Struggle for Mastery in Europe, 1848-1918 (Oxford University Press, 1954).

 

Morton Kaplan, System and Process in International Politics (Wiley, 1957).

 

George Liska, Nations in Alliance (Johns Hopkins Press, 1968).

 

Glenn H. Snyder, Alliance Politics (Cornell University Press, 1997).

 

Thomas J. Christensen and Jack Snyder, "Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns in Multipolarity," International Organization 44, no. 2 (Spring 1990).

 

Robert Jervis, "Security Regimes," in Stephen D. Krasner, ed., International Regimes (Cornell University Press, 1983).

 

Paul Schroeder, "Historical Reality vs. Neo-realist Theory," International Security 19, no.. 1 (Summer 1994).

 

Paul Schroeder, "The 19th-Century International System: Changes in the Structure," World Politics 39, no. 1 (October 1986).

 

Fareed Zakaria, From Wealth to Power: The Unusual Origins of America's World Role  (Princeton University Press, 1998).

 

G. F. Hudson, "Collective Security and Military Alliances," in Herbert Butterfield and Martin Wight, eds., Diplomatic Investigations (Harvard University Press, 1968).

 

James T. Shotwell, War as an Instrument of National Policy and Its Renunciation in the Pact of Paris (Harcourt, Brace, 1929).

 

John Gerard Ruggie, Winning the Peace (Columbia University Press, 1996).

 

Boutros Boutros Ghali, "An Agenda for Peace: Preventive Diplomacy, Peacemaking and Peace-keeping -- Report of the Secretary General Pursuant to the Statement Adopted by the Summit Meeting of the Security Council on 31 January 1992," (United Nations, June 1992).

 

Boutros Boutros-Ghali, "'An Agenda for Peace': One Year Later," Orbis 37, no. 3 (Summer 1993).

 

Laurence Martin, "Peacekeeping as a Growth Industry," National Interest no. 32 (Summer 1993)

 

Thomas G. Weiss, "Intervention: Whither the United Nations?" Washington Quarterly 17, no. 1 (Winter 1994).

 

Adam Roberts, Humanitarian Action in War, Adelphi Paper No. 305 (London: IISS, 1996).

 

Bruce Russett and James S. Sutterlin, "The U.N. in a New World Order," Foreign Affairs 70, no. 2 (Spring 1991).

 

Alan L. Keyes, "Fixing the UN," National Interest no. 4 (Summer 1986).

 

Robert W. Tucker and David Hendrickson, "America and Bosnia," National Interest no. 33 (Fall 1993).

 

Richard K. Betts, "The Delusion of Impartial Intervention," Foreign Affairs 73, no. 6 (November/December 1994).

 

Charles and Clifford Kupchan, "Concerts, Collective Security, and the Future of Europe," International Security 16, no. 1 (Summer 1991).

 

Malcolm Chalmers, "Beyond the Alliance System," World Policy Journal 7, no. 2 (Spring 1990).

 

John D. Steinbruner, "Revolution in Foreign Policy," in Henry J. Aaron, ed., Setting National Priorities: Policy for the Nineties (Brookings Institution, 1990).

 

Ashton B. Carter, William J. Perry, and John D. Steinbruner, A New Concept of Collective Security (Brookings Institution, 1992).

 

Janne E. Nolan, ed., Global Engagement (Brookings Institution, 1994).

 

John J. Mearsheimer, "The False Promise of International Institutions," International Security 19, no. 3 (Winter 1994/95).

 

Robert Keohane and Lisa Martin, "The Promise of Institutionalist Theory;" Charles and Clifford Kupchan, "The Promise of Collective Security;" John Ruggie, "The False Premise of Realism;" Alexander Wendt, "Constructing International Politics;" and John Mearsheimer, "A Realist Reply," all in International Security 20, no. 1 (Summer 1995).

 

 

 

                                                                           IV.  The Choice of War or Peace

 

L.C.F. Turner, Origins of the First World War (Norton, 1970).

 

John W. Wheeler-Bennett, Munich: Prologue to Tragedy (Macmillan, 1948).

 

Glenn D. Paige, The Korean Decision (Free Press, 1968).

 

Robert F. Kennedy. Thirteen Days (Norton, 1969).

 

Joseph F. Bouchard, Command in Crisis (Columbia University Press, 1991).

 

Larry Berman, Planning a Tragedy (Norton, 1982).

 

Scott D. Sagan, The Limits of Safety (Princeton University Press, 1993).

 

Scott D. Sagan, "Nuclear Alerts and Crisis Management," International Security 9, no. 4 (Spring 1985).

 

Barry M. Blechman and Stephen Kaplan, eds., Force Without War (Brookings Institution, 1978).

 

Stephen Kaplan, ed., Diplomacy of Power (Brookings Institution, 1981).

 

Alexander George, ed., Managing U.S.-Soviet Rivalry: Problems of Crisis Prevention (Westview Press, 1983).

 

Alexander George, ed., Avoiding War (Westview Press, 1991).

 

 

                                                          V.  Modern War:  Constraints, Conditions, Conduct

 

Halford J. Mackinder, "The Geopolitical Pivot of History," Geographical Journal 23, no. 4 (April 1904).

 

Niicholas J. Spykman, America's Strategy in World Politics (Harcourt, Brace, 1942).

 

Edward Mead Earle, "Adam Smith, Alexander Hamilton, Friedrich List: The Economic Foundations of Military Power," in Peter Paret,, ed., Makers of Modern Strategy (Princeton University Press, 1986).

 

Klaus Knorr, The War Potential of Nations (Princeton University Press, 1956).

 

Henry E. Eccles, Military Concepts and Philosophy (Rutgers University Press, 1965).

 

John Brewer, The Sinews of Power: War, Money and the English State, 1688-1783 (Unwin Hyman, 1989).

 

Michael A. Barnhart, Japan Prepares for Total War: The Search for Economic Security, 1919-1941 (Cornell University Press, 1987).

 

Peter Liberman, Does Conquest Pay? (Princeton University Press, 1996).

 

Martin Van Creveld, Supplying War (Cambridge University Press, 1977).

 

Conduct of the Persian Gulf War: Final Report to Congress Pursuant to Title V of the Persian Gulf Supplemental Authorization and Personnel Benefits Act of 1991 (Public Law 102-25) (U.S. Department of Defense, April 1992), Appendix F: "Logistics Build-Up and Sustainment."

               

John Gooch, ed., Decisive Campaigns of the Second World War (London: Cass, 1990).

 

Richard M. Leighton and Robert W. Coakley, Global Logistics and Strategy, 1940-1943 (U.S. Department of the Army, Office of the Chief of Military History, 1955).

 

Robert W. Coakley and Richard M. Leighton, Global Logistics and Strategy, 1943-1945 (U.S. Army, Office of the Chief of Military History, 1968).

 

Lt. General William G. Pagonis with Jeffrey L. Cruikshank, Moving Mountains: Lessons in Leadership and Logistics from the Gulf War (Harvard Business School Press, 1992).

 

Geoffrey Kemp and Robert E. Harkavy, Strategic Geography and the Changing Middle East (Carnegie Endowment/Brookings Institution, 1997).

 

Jacques S. Gansler, "Transforming the US Defence Industrial Base," Survival 35, no. 4 (Winter 1993-94).

 

Thomas L. McNaugher, New Weapons, Old Politics (Brookings Institution, 1989).

 

Chris C. Demchak, Military Organizations, Complex Machines (Cornell University Press, 1991).

 

Richard K. Betts, Military Readiness: Concepts, Choices, Consequences (Brookings Institution, 1995).

 

 

                                                                      VI.  Policy, Strategy, and Operations:

                                                              Integrating Political Ends and Military Means

 

William H. McNeill, The Pursuit of Power: Technology, Armed Force, and Society Since A.D. 1000 (University of Chicago Press, 1982).

 

Williamson Murray, MacGregor Knox, and Alvin Bernstein, eds., The Making of Strategy (Cambridge University Press, 1994).

 

J.C. Wylie, Military Strategy: A General Theory of Power Control (Rutgers University Press, 1967).

 

Archer Jones, The Art of War in the Western World (University of Illinois Press, 1987).

               

Herman Hattaway and Archer Jones, How the North Won (University of Illinois Press, 1983), Appendix A: "An Introduction to the Study of Military Operations."

 

Colin McInnes and G.D. Sheffield, eds., Warfare in the Twentieth Century: Theory and Practice ((Unwin Hyman, 1988).

 

Zvi Lanir, "The 'Principles of War' and Military Thinking," Journal of Strategic Studies 16, no. 1 (March 1993).

 

Larry H. Addington, The Patterns of War Since the Eighteenth Century (Indiana University Press, 1984).

 

Christopher Bellamy, The Evolution of Modern Land Warfare (London: Routledge, 1990).

 

Allan Millett and Williamson Murray, eds., Military Effectiveness (Allen and Unwin, 1988), 3 volumes.

 

Christopher N. Donnelly, "The Development of Soviet Military Doctrine," International Defense Review 14, no. 12 (1981).

 

Mary C. Fitzgerald, "Marshal Ogarkov and the New Revolution in Soviet Military Affairs," Defense Analysis 3, no. 1 (1987).

 

Timothy T. Lupfer, The Dynamics of Doctrine: The Changes in German Tactical Doctrine During the First World War, Leavenworth Paper No. 4 (U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, July 1981).

 

Heinz Guderian, Panzer Leader, Constantine Fitzgibbon, trans. (London: Michael Joseph, 1952).

 

Dan Horowitz, "Flexible Responsiveness and Military Strategy: The Case of the Israeli Army," Policy Sciences 1, no. 2 (Summer 1970).

 

Yoav Ben-Horin and Barry Posen, Israel's Strategic Doctrine, R-2845-NA (RAND Corporation, September 1981).

 

Michael I. Handel, Israel's Political-Military Doctrine, Occasional Paper No. 30 (Harvard University Center for International Affairs, 1973).

 

Shimon Naveh, In Pursuit of Military Excellence: The Evolution of Operational Theory (London: Cass, 1997).

 

Bernard Brodie, "Technological Change, Strategic Doctrine, and Political Outcomes," in Klaus Knorr, ed., Historical Dimensions of National Security Problems (University Press of Kansas, 1976).

 

Karl Lautenschlager, "Technology and the Evolution of Naval Warfare," International Security 8, no. 2 (Fall 1983).

 

Tom Wintringham, The Story of Weapons and Tactics (Houghton Mifflin, 1943).

 

Captain Jonathan M. House, Toward Combined Arms Warfare: A Survey of Twentieth Century Tactics, Doctrine, and Organization (U.S. Army Combat Studies Institute, 1984).

 

E. D. Swinton, The Defence of Duffer's Drift (Avery, 1986).

 

I.B. Holley, Jr., Ideas and Weapons (Yale University Press, 1953).

 

Edward Luttwak, Strategy: The Logic of War and Peace (Harvard University Press, 1987).

 

Alfred Thayer Mahan, The Influence of Seapower on History, 1660-1783 (Little, Brown, 1890).

 

Julian S. Corbett, Some Principles of Maritime Strategy (London: Longmans, Green, 1911).

 

U.S. Strategic Bombing Survey, Summary Report (European War) (Government Printing Office, September 1945).

 

U.S. Strategic Bombing Survey, Summary Report (Pacific War) (Government Printing Office, July 1946).

 

Col. John Warden, The Air Campaign (Pergamon-Brassey's, 1989).

 

Tami Davis Biddle, "British and American Approaches to Strategic Bombing," Journal of Strategic Studies 18, no. 1 (March 1995).

 

Andrei A. Kokoshin, Soviet Strategic Thought, 1917-91 (MIT Press, 1998).

 

Mark Clodfelter, The Limits of Air Power: The American Bombing of North Vietnam (Free Press 1989).

 

Wallace Thies, When Governments Collide (University of California Press, 1980).

 

Gulf War Air Power Survey, 5 volumes plus Summary Report (Government Printing Office, 1993).

 

Thomas A. Keaney and Eliot A. Cohen, Revolution in Warfare? Airpower in the Persian Gulfg (Naval Institute Press, 1995).

 

Robert A. Pape, Jr., Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War (Cornell University Press, 1996).

 

Barry D. Watts, "Problems of Theory and Evidence in Security Studies" and Robert A. Pape, "A Reply to Barry Watts and John Warden," both in Security Studies 7, no. 2 (Winter 1997/98).

 

William D. White, U.S. Tactical Airpower: Missions, Forces, and Costs (Brookings Institution, 1974).

 

John Ellis, The Social History of the Machine Gun (Pantheon, 1975).

 

Richard K. Betts, ed., Cruise Missiles: Technology, Strategy, Politics (Brookings Institution, 1981).

 

Stephen Van Evera, "The Cult of the Offensive and the Origins of the First World War," International Security 9, no. 1 (Summer 1984).

 

Alexei Arbatov, "Defense Sufficiency and the Restructuring of the Armed Forces," in USSR Academy of Sciences/IMEMO, Disarmament and Security: 1988-1989 Yearbook (Moscow: Novosti, 1989).

 

Sean M. Lynn-Jones, "Offense-Defense Theory and Its Critics," Security Studies 4, no. 4 (Summer 1995).

 

Stephen Biddle, "Victory Misunderstood: What the Gulf War Tells Us about the Future of Conflict," International Security 21, no. 1 (Fall 1996).

 

 

                                                          VII.  Ends and Means in Total War and Limited War

 

Paul Kennedy, ed., The War Plans of the Great Powers, 1880-1914 (London: Unwin Hyman, 1988).

 

Paul Kennedy, ed., Grand Strategies in War and Peace (Yale University Press, 1991).

 

Gerhard L. Weinberg, A World at Arms: A Global History of World War II (Cambridge University Press, 1994).

 

Scott Sagan, "The Origins of the Pacific War," in Robert I. Rotberg and Theodore K. Rabb, eds., The Origin and Prevention of Major Wars (Cambridge University Press, 1989).

 

Louis B. Morton, Strategy and Command: The First Two Years (Department of the Army, Office of the Chief of Military History, 1962).

 

Maurice Matloff, Strategic Planning for Coalition Warfare: 1943-1944 (Department of the Army, Office of the Chief of Military History, 1959).

 

Kent Roberts Greenfield, American Strategy in World War II (Johns Hopkins Press, 1963).

 

Hanson W. Baldwin, Great Mistakes of the War (Harper, 1950).

 

Klaus Hildebrand, The Foreign Policy of the Third Reich, Anthony Fothergill, trans. (University of California Press, 1973).

 

Norman Rich, Hitler's War Aims, 2 volumes (Norton, 1973-74).

 

J. Lawton Collins, War in Peacetime: The History and Lessons of Korea (Houghton Mifflin, 1969).

                               

Robert E. Osgood, Limited War (University of Chicago Press, 1957).

 

Robert E. Osgood, Limited War Revisited (Westview, 1979).

 

Samuel P. Huntington, "Patterns of Violence in World Politics," in Huntington, ed., Changing Patterns of Military Politics (Free Press, 1962).

 

Douglas Blaufarb, The Counterinsurgency Era (Free Press, 1977).

 

Eric M. Bergerud, The Dynamics of Defeat: The Vietnam War in Hau Nghia Province (Westview Press, 1990).

 

Thomas Thayer, War Without Fronts (Westview Press, 1985).

 

Eliot A. Cohen, "Constraints on America's Conduct of Small Wars," International Security 9, no. 2 (Fall 1984).

 

Bruce Palmer, The 25 Year War (University Press of Kentucky, 1984).

 

Leslie H. Gelb with Richard K. Betts, The Irony of Vietnam: The System Worked (Brookings Institution, 1979).

 

 

                                                                           VIII.  Society, Polity, and Power

 

E.H. Carr, Nationalism and After (Macmillan, 1945).

 

Kyung-Won Kim, Revolution and International System (New York University Press, 1970), selections.

 

Myron Weiner, "The Macedonian Syndrome," World Politics 23, no. 4 (July 1971).

 

Geoffrey Parker, The Military Revolution: Military Innovation and the Rise of the West, 1500-1800 (Cambridge University Press, 1988).

 

Charles Tilly, ed., The Formation of National States in Western Europe (Princeton University Press, 1975).

 

Bruce D. Porter, War and the Rise of the State: The Military Foundations of Modern Politics (Free Press, 1994).

 

Bartholomew H. Sparrow, From the Outside In: World War II and the American State (Princeton University Press, 1996).

 

Brian M. Downing, The Military Revolution and Political Change: Origins of Democracy and Autocracy in Early Modern Europe (Princeton University Press, 1992).

 

Michael Mann, States, War and Capitalism (Blackwell, 1988).

 

Stanislav Andreski, Military Organization and Society (London: Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1954).

 

Stephen Peter Rosen, Societies and Military Power: India and Its Armies (Cornell University Press, 1996).

 

David Schoenbaum, Hitler's Social Revolution (Doubleday, 1966).

 

George Orwell, Homage to Catalonia (Harcourt, Brace, 1952).

 

Jonathan Shay, Achilles in Vietnam: Combat Trauma and the Undoing of Character (Atheneum, 1994).

 

Jack Snyder, "Nationalism and the Crisis of the Post-Soviet State," Survival 35, no. 1 (Spring 1993).

 

Jack Snyder, The Ideology of the Offensive (Cornell University Press, 1984).

 

Elizabeth Kier, Imagining War (Princeton University Press, 1997).

 

Barry Posen, The Sources of Military Doctrine (Cornell University Press, 1984).

 

Stephen Peter Rosen, Winning the Next War (Cornell University Press, 1991).

 

Deborah D. Avant, , Political Institutions and Military Change (Cornell University Press, 1994).

 

Samuel P. Huntington, The Soldier and the State (Harvard University Press, 1957).

 

Samuel Finer, The Man on Horseback (Praeger, 1962).

 

Richard K. Betts, Soldiers, Statesmen, and Cold War Crises, Second Edition (Columbia University Press, 1991).

 

Morris Janowitz, The Professional Soldier, Second Edition (Free Press, 1971).

 

Alfred Vagts, A History of Militarism, Revised Edition (Free Press, 1959).

 

Amos Perlmutter, The Military and Politics in Modern Times (Yale University Press, 1977).

 

Katherine Chorley, Armies and the Art of Revolution (London: Faber & Faber, 1943).

 

George Armstrong Kelly, Lost Soldiers: The French Army and Empire in Crisis, 1947-1962 (MIT Press, 1965).

 

John Robert Ferris, Men, Money, and Diplomacy: The Evolution of British Strategic Foreign Policy, 1919-1926 (Cornell University Press, 1989).

 

Martin van Creveld, Command in War (Harvard University Press, 1985).

 

C. Kenneth Allard, Command, Control, and the Common Defense (Yale University Press, 1990).

 

Eliot Cohen, Citizens and Soldiers (Cornell University Press, 1985).

 

Martin van Creveld, Fighting Power: German and U.S. Army Performance, 1939-1945 (Greenwood, 1982).

 

David Schoenbaum, "The Wehrmacht and G.I. Joe: Learning What from History," International Security 8, no. 1 (Summer 1983).

 

Charles Moskos, The American Enlisted Man (Sage, 1970).

 

Roger J. Spiller, "The Tenth Imperative," Military Review 69, no. 4 (April 1989).

 

William Shakespeare, The Life of King Henry the Fifth, IV, iii (St. Crispin's Day speech).

 

M. Brewster Smith, "Combat Motivations Among Ground Troops," in Samuel A. Stouffer, et al., The American Soldier, Vol. II: Combat and Its Aftermath (Princeton University Press, 1949).

 

S.L.A. Marshall, Men Against Fire (Morrow, 1947)  and  Frederic Smoler, "The Secret of the Soldiers Who Didn't Shoot," American Heritage 40, no. 2 (March 1989); Roger J. Spiller, "S.L.A. Marshall and the Ratio of Fire," RUSI Journal (Winter 1988); Russell W. Glenn, "Men and Fire in Vietnam," Army 39, no. 4 (April 1989).  (The latter articles explain how Marshall's classic was founded on phony data.)

 

James Gould Cozzens, Guard of Honor (Harcourt, Brace, 1948).

 

 

                                                           IX.  When Is War Murder?  The Morality of Killing

 

Thomas Pangle, "The Moral Basis of National Security," in Klaus Knorr, ed., Historical Dimensions of National Security Problems (University Press of Kansas, 1976).

 

Charles W. Sydnor, Jr., Soldiers of Destruction: The SS Death's Head Division, 1933-1945, Second Edition (Princeton University Press, 1990).

 

Christopher R. Browning, Ordinary Men: Reserve Police Battalion 101 and the Final Solution in Poland (HarperCollins, 1992).

 

Daniel Goldhagen, Hitler's Willing Executioners (Knopf, 1996).

 

Seymour M. Hersh, My Lai 4 (Random House, 1970).

 

Pastoral Letter on War and Peace, The Challenge of Peace (National Conference of Catholic Bishops, May 1983), Part II.

 

Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Nuclear Ethics (Free Press, 1985).

 

James Turner Johnson, Just War Tradition and the Restraint of War (Princeton University Press, 1981).

 

Michael S. Sherry, The Rise of American Air Power: The Creation of Armageddon (Yale University Press, 1987).

 

Fred Charles Iklé, The Social Impact of Bomb Destruction (University of Oklahoma Press, 1958).

 

Stanley Milgram, Obedience to Authority (Harper & Row, 1973).

 

Max Weber, "Politics as a Vocation," in H. H. Gerth and C. Wright Mills, eds., From Max Weber (Oxford University Press, 1954).

 

                                                                X.  The Nuclear Revolution (1): Theory

 

Albert Carnesale, et al., Living With Nuclear Weapons: The Harvard Nuclear Study Group (Harvard Uniiversity Press, 1983).

 

Thomas Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict (Harvard University Press, 1960).

 

Glenn H. Snyder, Deterrence and Defense (Princeton University Press, 1961).

 

William W. Kaufmann, "The Requirements of Deterrence," in Kaufmann, ed., Military Policy and National Security (Princeton University Press, 1956).

 

Herman Kahn, On Thermonuclear War (Princeton University Press, 1960).

 

Bernard Brodie, Escalation and the Nuclear Option (Princeton University Press, 1967).

 

Patrick Morgan, Deterrence: A Conceptual Analysis, Sage Library of Social Research vol. 40 (Sage, 1977).

 

John D. Steinbruner, "Beyond Rational Deterrence," World Politics 28, no. 2 (January 1976).

 

John D. Steinbruner, "National Security and the Concept of Strategic Stability," Journal of Conflict Resolution 22, no. 3 (September 1978).

 

Paul H. Nitze, "Assuring Strategic Stability in an Era of Detente," Foreign Affairs 54, no. 2 (January 1976).

 

Fred Iklé, "Can Nuclear Deterrence Last Out the Century?" Foreign Affairs 51, no. 2 (January 1973).

 

Warner R. Schilling, "U.S. Strategic Nuclear Concepts in the 1970s," International Security 6, no. 2 (Fall 1981).

 

Richard K. Betts, "Heavenly Gains or Earthly Losses: Toward a Balance Sheet for Strategic Defense," in Harold Brown, ed., The Strategic Defense Initiative (Westview, 1987).

 

Anatol Rapaport, Fights, Games, and Debates (University of Michigan Press, 1960).

 

Anatol Rapaport, Strategy and Conscience (Harper and Row, 1964).

 

Bruce G. Blair, Strategic Command and Control (Brookings Institution, 1984).

 

Bruce G. Blair, The Logic of Accidental Nuclear War (Brookings Institution, 1993).

 

Robert Jervis, The Illogic of American Nuclear Strategy (Cornell University Press, 1984).

 

Robert Jervis, The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution (Cornell University Press, 1989).

 

Charles Glaser, Analyzing Strategic Nuclear Policy (Princeton University Press, 1990).

 

Michael Mandelbaum, The Nuclear Revolution (Cambridge University Press, 1991).

 

Barry R. Posen, Inadvertant Escalation (Cornell University Press, 1991).

 

Pat Frank, Alas, Babylon (Lippincott, 1959).

 

Richard K. Betts, "The New Threat of Mass Destruction," Foreign Affairs 77, no. 1 (January/February 1998).

 

 

                                                                   XI.  The Nuclear Revolution (2): Practice

 

John Hersey, Hiroshima (Knopf, 1946).

 

Stephen I. Schwartz, ed., Atomic Audit: The Costs and Consequences of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Since 1940 (Brookings Institution Press, 1998).

 

David Alan Rosenberg, "The Origins of Overkill," International Security 7, no. 4 (Spring 1983).

 

Fred Kaplan, The Wizards of Armageddon (Simon and Schuster, 1983).

 

Desmond Ball and Jeffrey Richelson, eds., Strategic Nuclear Targeting (Cornell University Press, 1986).

 

Scott D. Sagan, Moving Targets (Princeton University Press, 1989).

 

Scott D. Sagan, "SIOP-62: The Nuclear War Plan Briefing to President Kennedy," International Security 12, no. 1 (Summer 1987).

 

U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Hearing: Briefing on Counterforce Attacks, 93d Cong., 2d sess., 1975.

 

Sidney Drell and Frank von Hippel, "Limited Nuclear War," Scientific American (November 1976).

 

Leon Sloss and Marc Dean Millot, "U.S. Nuclear Strategy in Evolution," Strategic Review 12, no. 1 (Winter 1984).

 

David N. Schwartz, NATO's Nuclear Dilemmas (Brookings Institution, 1983).

 

Desmond Ball, Politics and Force Levels (University of California Press, 1980).

 

Ted Greenwood, Making the MIRV (Ballinger, 1975).

 

Ashton B. Carter, John D. Steinbruner, and Charles A. Zraket, eds., Managing Nuclear Operations (Brookings Institution, 1987).

 

Peter Douglas Feaver, Guarding the Guardians (Cornell University Press, 1992).

 

Janne E. Nolan, Guardians of the Arsenal (Basic Books, 1989).

 

Fritz Ermarth, "Contrasts in American and Soviet Strategic Thought," International Security 3, no. 2 (Fall 1978).

 

Raymond L. Garthoff, Deterrence and the Revolution in Soviet Military Doctrine (Brookings Institution, 1990).

 

Marc Trachtenberg, History and Strategy (Princeton University Press, 1991).

 

U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Technologies Underlying Weapons of Mass Destruction, OTA-BP-ISC-115 (Government Printing Office, December 1993).

 

 

                                                               XII.  Threat Assessment and Defense Planning

 

NSC 68:  "A Report to the National Security Council by the Executive Secretary on United States Objectives and Programs for National Security," April 14, 1950.

 

NIE-11-3-8-76 and Team B Report:  National Intelligence Estimate, "Soviet Strategic Forces for Intercontinental Conflict Through the Mid-1980s," Vol. I: Key Judgments and Summary, December 1976;  Report of Team "B," "Intelligence Community Experiment in Competitive Analysis: Soviet Strategic Objectives: An Alternate View," December 1976.

 

Roberta Wohlstetter, Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision (Stanford University Press, 1962).

 

Richard K. Betts, Surprise Attack (Brookings Institution, 1982).

 

Ephraim Kam, Surprise Attack: The Victim's Perspective (Harvard University Press, 1988), chaps. 2-8.

 

Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Princeton University Press, 1976).

 

T.V. Paul, Asymmetric Conflicts: War Initiation by Weaker Powers (Cambridge University Press, 1994).

 

Richard Ned Lebow, Between Peace and War (Johns Hopkins University Press, 1981).

 

Richard K. Betts, "Analysis, War, and Decision: Why Intelligence Failures are Inevitable," World Politics 31, no. 1 (October 1978).

 

Ariel Levite, Intelligence and Strategic Surprises (Columbia University Press, 1987) (an attack on Wohlstetter, Betts, and others).

 

Richard K. Betts, "Surprise, Scholasticism, and Strategy," International Studies Quarterly 33, no. 3 (September 1989) (a counterattack on Levite).

 

Ernest May, ed., Knowing One's Enemies (Princeton University Press, 1984).

 

Lawrence Freedman, U.S. Intelligence and the Soviet Strategic Threat, Second Edition (Princeton University PPress, 1986).

 

John Prados, The Soviet Estimate, Second Edition (Princeton University Press, 1986).

 

Michael I. Handel, "The Yom Kippur War and the Inevitability of Surprise," International Studies Quarterly 21, no. 3 (September 1977).

 

Michael I. Handel, ed., Intelligence and Military Operations (London: Frank Cass, 1990).

 

Klaus Knorr, "Failures in National Intelligence Estimates: The Case of the Cuban Missiles," World Politics 16, no. 3 (April 1964).

 

F.H. Hinsley, et al., British Intelligence in the Second World War, 4 volumes (Cambridge University Press, 1979-90).

 

Wesley K. Wark, The Ultimate Enemy: British Intelligence and Nazi Germany, 1933-1939 (Cornell University Press, 1985).

 

James Wirtz, The Tet Offensive (Cornell University Press, 1991).

 

Frederick William Lanchester, "Mathematics in Warfare," in James R. Newman, ed., The World of Mathematics (Simon and Schuster, 1956).

 

James Taylor, Lanchester Models of Warfare, 2 volumes (Operations Research Society of America, 1983).

 

Joshua M. Epstein, The Calculus of Conventional War: Dynamic Analysis Without Lanchester Theory (Brookings Institution, 1985).

 

John W.R. Lepinwell, "The Laws of Combat? Lanchester Reexamined," International Security 12, no. 1 (Summer 1987).

 

N. K. Jaiswal, Military Operations Research: Quantitative Decision Making (Kluwer, 1997).

 

Francis P. Hoeber, Military Applications of Modeling: Selected Case Studies (Gordon and Breach, 1981).

 

E. S. Quade and W. I. Boucher, eds., Systems Analysis and Policy Planning Applications in Defenese (American Elsevier, 1968).

 

Alain Enthoven and K. Wayne Smith, How Much Is Enough? (Harper & Row, 1971).

 

Alan Beyerchen, "Clausewitz, Nonlinearity, and the Unpredictability of War," International Security 17, no. 3 (Winter 1992/93).

 

Robert E. Osgood, NATO: The Entangling Alliance (University of Chicago Press, 1962).

 

Samuel P. Huntington, The Common Defense (Columbia University Press, 1961).

 

Robert P. Haffa, Jr., Rational Methods, Prudent Choices: Planning U.S. Forces (National Defense University Press, 1988), chap. 3.

 

Robert H. Johnson, Improbable Dangers: U.S. Conceptions of Threat in the Cold War and After (St. Martin's Press, 1997).

 

Zalmay Khalilzad and David Ochmanek, "Rethinking US Defence Planning," Survival 39, no. 1 (Spring 1997).

 

Les Aspin, Report on the Bottom-Up Review (Department of Defense, October 1993).

 

William S. Cohen, Report of the Quadrennial Defense Review (Department of Defense, May 1997).

 

Philip A. Odeen et al., Transforming Defense, Report of the National Defense Panel, December 1997).

 

Report of the Secretary of Defense to the President and Congress (U.S. Department of Defense, annual).

 

 

                                                                       XIII.  Arms Control and Disarmament

 

Arms Control and Disarmament Agreements: Texts and Histories of the Negotiations (U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, 1990).

 

Bernard G. Bechhoefer, Postwar Negotiations for Arms Control (Brookings Institution, 1961).

 

Salvador de Madariaga, Disarmament (Coward-McCann, 1929).

 

Thomas C. Schelling and Morton H. Halperin, Strategy and Arms Control (Twentieth Century Fund, 1961).

 

Fred Charles Iklé, How Nations Negotiate (Praeger, 1967).

 

Hedley Bull, The Control of the Arms Race, Second Edition (Praeger, 1965).

 

Jennifer E. Sims, Icarus Restrained: An Intellectual History of Nuclear Arms Control, 1945-60 (Westview Press, 1990).

 

John Newhouse, Cold Dawn: The Story of SALT (Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1973).

 

Gerard Smith, Doubletalk: The Story of SALT I (Doubleday, 1980).

 

Strobe Talbott, Endgame: The Inside Story of SALT II (Harper and Row, 1979).

 

Strobe Talbott, Deadly Gambits: The Reagan Administration and the Stalemate in Arms Control (Knopf, 1984).

 

Albert Carnesale and Richard N. Haass, eds., Superpower Arms Control: Setting the Record Straight (Ballinger, 1987).

 

Bruce Berkowitz, Calculated Risks (Simon and Schuster, 1987).

 

Charles Fairbanks, "Arms Races," National Interest No. 1 (Fall 1985).

 

Albert Wohlstetter, "Racing Forward or Ambling Back?" in James Schlesinger et al., Defending America (Basic Books, 1977).

 

George W. Downs, David M. Rocke, and Randolph M. Siverson, "Arms Races and Cooperation," World Politics 38, no. 1 (October 1985).

 

Merze Tate, The United States and Armaments (Harvard University Press, 1948).

 

Robert Gordon Kaufman, Arms Control During the Pre-Nuclear Era (Columbia University Press, 1990).

 

Emily Goldman, Sunken Treaties (Pennsylvania State University Press, 1994).

 

Jonathan Dean, Watershed in Europe (Lexington Books, 1987).

 

Colin S. Gray, House of Cards (Cornell University Press, 1992).  

 

Bruce G. Blair, The Logic of Accidental Nuclear War (Brookings Institution, 1993).

 

Richard K. Betts, "Paranoids, Pygmies, Pariahs, and Nonproliferation Revisited," Security Studies 2, nos. 3/4 (Spring-Summer 1993).

 

John F. Sopko, "The Changing Proliferation Threat," Foreign Policy No. 105 (Winter 1996-97).

 

Janne Nolan, Trappings of Power: Ballistic Missiles in the Third World (Brookings Institution, 1991).

 

Thomas L. McNaugher, "Ballistic Missiles and Chemical Weapons," International Security 15, no. 2 (Fall 1990).

 

U.S. Congress, Global Arms Trade: Commerce in Advanced Military Technology and Weapons (Office of Technology Assessment, June 1991).

 

 

                                               XIV:  Conclusion: Evolving Bases of Conflict and Cooperation

 

Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order (Simon and Schuster, 1996).

 

Robert J. Art, "A Defensible Defense: America's Grand Strategy After the Cold War," International Security 15, no. 4 (Spring 1991).

 

Barry R. Posen and Andrew L. Ross, "Competing Visions for U.S. Grand Strategy," International Security 21, no. 3 (Winter 1996/97).

 

Colin S. Gray, "The Continued Primacy of Geography" and Martin Libicki, "The Emerging Primacy of Information," Orbis 40, no. 2 (Spring 1996).

 

Stephen Van Evera, "Primed for Peace: Europe After the Cold War," International Security 15, no. 3 (Winter 1990/91).

 

Chaim Kaufmann, "Possible and Impossible Solutions to Ethnic Civil War," International Security 20, no. 4 (Spring 1996).

 

Radha Kumar, "The Troubled History of Partition," Foreign Affairs 76, no. 1 (January/February 1997).

 

Ken Booth, Strategy and Ethnocentrism (Holmes and Meier, 1979).

 

Graham Fuller, "Islamic Fundamentalism," in Betts, ed., Conflict After the Cold War.

 

Colin H. Kahl, "Population Growth, Environmental Degradation, and State-Sponsored Violence," International Security 23, no. 2 (Fall 1998).

 

Abdulaziz A. Sachedina, "The Development of Jihad in Islamic Revelation and History," in James Turner Johnson and John Kelsay, eds., Cross, Crescent, and Sword: The Justification and Limitation of War in Western and Islamic Tradition (Greenwood Press, 1990).

 

Samuel P. Huntington, "America's Changing Strategic Interests," in Betts, ed., Conflict After the Cold War.

 

Michael O'Hanlon, How to Be a Cheap Hawk (Brookings Institution Press, 1998).

 

Shu Guang Zhang, Deterrence and Strategic Culture (Cornell University Press, 1992).

 

Joseph Nye and William Owens, "America's Information Edge," Foreign Affairs 75, no. 2 (March/April 1996).

 

Andrew Krepinevich, "Cavalry to Computer," National Interest No. 37 (Fall 1994).

 

Stephen Biddle, "The Past as Prologue: Assessing Theories of Future Warfare," Security Studies 8, no. 1 (Autumn 1998).

 

John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt, eds., In Athena's Camp: Preparing for Conflict in the Information Age (RAND Corporation, 1998).

 

Martin Van Creveld, The Transformation of War (Free Press, 1991).

 

David A. Baldwin, "Security Studies and the End of the Cold War," World Politics 48, no. 1 (October 1995).

 

Richard K. Betts, "Should Strategic Studies Survive?" World Politics 50, no. 1 (October 1997).