Agent-Based Modeling of Ethnic Mobilization:
The Former Yugoslavia Case
Armano Srbljinovic´, Drazˇen Penzar, Petra Rodik, Kruno Kardov
Armano.Srbljinovic@morh.hr, Drazen.Penzar@morh.hr, prodik@inet.hr, kkardov@filozof.ffzg.hr
The term ethnic mobilization, as used in this paper,
refers to the process of reviving latent ethnic identities. More specifically,
we investigate what has already been described as social situations in
which ethnic roles that used to have less social importance are, under certain
circumstances, pushed up towards the highest-importance end of the scale,
as it was the case in former Yugoslavia. We are more
interested in exploring mechanisms by which this process happens than in
exploring causes of such situations.
In order to enable the explorations, we construct an
agent-based model, combining and trying to improve some of the previously
used representations of social networks and collective cognitive structures
involved in the development of identity shaping and collective mobilization
mechanisms.
The agents are characterized by four basic variables:
ethnic membership (blue or red); degree of ethnic mobilization ? the degree
to which an agent identifies with its ethnic group; degree of ?civic mobilization?
? the degree to which an agent is committed to the values of civil society
(increasing ethnic mobilization is assumed to decrease the civic one); and
degree of grievance ? the variable describing agent?s satisfaction
with its conditions of life: economic, political, security and others. In
addition, each agent possesses its own ?social network? representing the
other agents with whom it communicates (family, friends, ?), and
whose state variables it can observe. Such observations influence the state
of agent?s variables.
During the simulation agents receive appeals. Appeals
are characterized by their source (blue, red or grey ? neutral), and content
(increase/decrease mobilization level). Appeals are meant to represent
various means ? media, public meetings, etc. ? by which particular subjects
? state, political organizations, ethnic leaders, non-governmental organizations,
etc. ? influence individuals? ethnic/civic orientation. Agents react to received
appeals by changing their state variables.
By varying the initial conditions of particular model
settings (i. e. agent constellations, appeal frequencies, types and targets),
as well as the parameters of agents? perception and processing mechanisms,
we are able to explore the influence of those factors on the efficiency of
ethnic mobilization process.
Preliminary results obtained by executing the model on
selected portions of parameter space are presented. Complex model?s behaviors
obtained with relatively simple mechanisms, as well as the model?s high sensitivity
on random variations in the initial distribution of mobilization intensity
and social networks may serve as indicators of inherent limitations on predictability
of mobilization processes.