Conflict and Trade in Cellular Automata World
Politics -- Adding the Liberal Factor
Byoung W. Min
min.16@osu.edu
The tradition of simulations in the study of international
relations has relied on the realist theory, while the liberal theories have
flourished during the past decades. The realist theories have focused on
the conflict dimension, so that many scenarios written by them have emphasized
the war-ridden worlds or the emergence of brutal empires, based on the logic
of power politics. Bremer and Mihalka's "Machiavelli in
Machina" (1977) and Cusack and Stoll's Automatic Stabilization Model (1990)
are among the early cellular automata simulation models using the realist
framework. In these simulations, world politics works by the mechanisms of
war, alliance, and territorial conflicts. While these mechanisms represent
many
important factors of world politics, the introduction of liberal themes,
such as trade and cooperation, have not yet been actively included in the
computer simulation models.
This study tries to investigate the probable scenarios
of world politics by including the trade factor to the existing realist paradigm.
The main question is how world politics changes its shape if we move from
the realist framework to a mixed one modified by the liberals. The basic
hypothesis is that increasing trade will reduce the frequency of war while
increasing the possibility of multipolarity. Besides, I would like to see
the impacts of trade on the state behaviors, such as balance of power, and
the state survival rates. This study will reproduce the core of Cusack and
Stoll's original conflict model, which is to be combined by the trade algorithm
extracted from the Sugarscape Model by Epstein and Axtell (1996).
The agents of this combined model will choose their own
behavior, war or trade, based on the calculation of expected utility of each
behavior toward all of their neighbor states. For every iteration, a state
agent will be chosen among all states holding positive expected utilities.
Agents are assumed to be rational in that they calculate the expected utility
for their choices. The factor of error is added to the calculation process
and the scope of agents‚ calculation and behavior is perfectly local. However,
unlike the old models that have relied too much on system parameters, this
study will focus on the theoretical mechanism. In particular, system parameters
will be made to fluctuate randomly in a range theoretically
assumed, instead of being fixed at specific values. By this method, the study
will compare the simulation results between the war-only world emphasized
by realism and the mixed world supplemented by the liberals, in the areas
of system endurance and multiplicity, patterns of balance of power, and state
survival rates.