Agent-based modeling: The First Ten Years; the
Next Hundred?
Nigel Gilbert
n.gilbert@soc.surrey.ac.uk
Agent-based social simulation is still not yet a teenager:
although a date for the first efforts in agent-based modelling is hard to
pin down, it is clear that there was little before 1992.
In this paper, I shall review the work that has been published since then,
focusing particularly on the last five years and the material published in
JASSS since January 1998. Among the questions I shall ask (and no doubt,
offer controversial answers to) are:
* Does agent-based modelling have anything worthwhile
to offer to social science in general, or is it only of interest to practitioners
of its own paradigm?
* Are there any general results that have come out of
the many case studies and specific papers published in the area? Are
there recognizable general 'theories' emerging from agent-based modelling
research?
* Can one distill advice about appropriate methods to
use for doing agent-based modelling by considering successful examples of
agent-based research? If so, what are they?
* Are there areas of ABS work that are relatively neglected,
although important, and others that are over-populated?
* There is no doubt that over the next few years we can
expect improvements in technology: faster hardware, better software, more
convenient toolkits. Will these improve the quality of the (social)
science?
* What guesses can one make about what the next ten (or
hundred) years of ABS research will bring?