Capturing Complexity in Residential Choice Behavior
Elenna Dugundji
E.Dugundji@FRW.UVA.NL
Transportation, land development and residential housing
all function within inter-linked economic markets that in the last decennia
have witnessed two important trends, namely an increasing differentiation
within the sectors in coupling with an increasing individualization in society,
and second, an increasing extending of the markets beyond local boundaries.
Supply-side dynamics in the Netherlands accordingly include
changing positions of government & industry agents in the transportation,
land use and housing sectors, and adjustment of policy at a macro level,
with consequent time-varying institutional and distributive implications
impacting the set of opportunities for various individuals & household
agents at a micro level. On the other hand, efficient housing, land use and
infrastructure responses to (residential) mobility and activity patterns
dynamics call for an emerging need for multi-municipality cooperation.
Demand-side dynamics in the Netherlands include changes
in the composition of the population and in the preferences of the individual
& household agents thereof. Relationships are supposed between the preferences
and circumstances of household & individual agents at a micro level and
market trends at a macro level, and between the willingness to change of
the various household & individual agents at a micro level and market
volatility at a macro level given sufficient vacancy rate.
The research develops a framework to empirically test
and model the complicated and complex system of interactions within these
inter-linked markets. The approach builds on the pioneering work of Brewer
and Hensher (2000) who coined the term Interactive Agency Choice Experiment,
or IACE, to describe a series of stated choice experiments with offers and
feedback. Furthermore, the approach draws on advances in Hierarchical Information
Integration, or HII, to handle the multi-dimensional nature of individual
& household decisions. Finally, the research aims to examine not only
the interaction between agents on the supply-side and demand-side, but additionally
the interaction among individual & household agents between each other
on the demand-side by drawing on Agent-Based Modeling techniques.