Drugmarket
Michael Agar**, Dwight Wilson
magar@anth.umd.edu
An anthropological research project, funded by NIH, aims
to develop a theory to explain how and why illicit drug epidemics occur.
As part of this project, presenters have developed and continue to work with
an agent- based adaptive model implemented in SWARM called Drugmarket. The
general approach is this: Model parameters are based on the results of ethnographic
data collection and analysis in a study of youthful heroin users. Two results
of Drugmarket behavior are then particularly interesting. First, the model
can be run to construct the attractor space, whereas the actual youth studied
ethnographically were only one location in that space. Second, by changing
parameters, several "what if" scenarios can be explored that correspond to
both historically real and hypothetical future situations.
In addition to contributing to epidemiology in the drug
field, the model raises interesting issues for anthropological research.
First, the traditional "idiographic/nomothetic" contrast in anthropology
can be addressed-i.e. how does one generalize from a single case while still
preserving that case's unique historical features. Second, the model implements
the concept of the "natural experiment," where critical comparative analysis
of cases can be created in silico as well as sought after in vivo . Third,
the exercise raises issues that go well beyond the usual "quantitative/qualitative"
debates, in that one must link local knowledge and formal representation
in the spirit of Zadeh's fuzzy logic. And fourth, the model offers guidelines
for intervention. For example, conditions that lead to a rapid increase in
incidence suggest emphasis on treatment, while slow increases shift the emphasis
on prevention.